The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US

This article provides out-of-sample forecasts of linear and nonlinear models of US and four Census subregions’ housing prices. The forecasts include the traditional point forecasts, but also include interval and density forecasts, of the housing price distributions. The nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive model outperforms the linear autoregressive model in point forecasts at longer horizons, but the linear autoregressive and nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive models perform equally at short horizons. In addition, we generally do not find major differences in performance for the interval and density forecasts between the linear and nonlinear models. Finally, in a dynamic 25-step ex-ante and interval forecasting design, we, once again, do not find major differences between the linear and nonlinear models. In sum, we conclude that when forecasting regional housing prices in the United States, generally the additional costs associated with nonlinear forecasts outweigh the benefits for forecasts only a few months into the future.     

Key Success Factors for Tourism Resort Management

Abstract

NEW HORIZONS IN TOURISM: STRANGE EXPERIENCES AND STRANGER PRACTICES. By Tej Vir Singh. CABI Publishing (Nosworthy Way, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8DE UK), ISBN 0-8519-9863-1, 2004, xv + 221-pp. (tables, photographs, bibliography), £49.95 (hardbound). Reviewed By C. Michael Hall

DESTINATION MARKETING ORGANISATIONS. By Steven Pike. Elsevier (The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, United Kingdom), ISBN 0-0804-4306-0, 2004, 231-pp. (bibliography, indices), £59.99 (hardbound). Reviewed By Chris Ryan     

The Taylor Rule and “Opportunistic” Monetary Policy

We investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process such that the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively in some circumstances than in others. It seems reasonable that the Federal Reserve would act more aggressively when inflation is high than when it is low. Similarly, it might be expected that the Federal Reserve responds more to a negative than a positive output gap. Although these specifications receive some empirical support, we find that a modified threshold model that is consistent with “opportunistic” monetary policy makes significant progress toward explaining Federal Reserve behavior.     

柳工856装载机电气故障模拟试验台开发

由于装载机结构庞大,电器元件隐蔽分散,不适合实物教学。我院研制开发的柳工856装载机电气故障模拟试验台结构紧凑、尺寸小,可在实验室内直接进行实验。教学效果较好,而且经济效益明显,占用实验室空间小。对国内高职院校工程机械电气课程教学有一定的示范和借鉴作用。     

Service Recovery Efforts in Fast Food Restaurants to Enhance Repeat Patronage

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to: (a) identify service failure incidents; (b) identify service recovery efforts; and (c) determine the effects of resolution levels repeat patronage. Employee service behavior and monetary rewards were found to have a significant effect on resolution levels. The manager should provide guiding principles to improve service quality. Furthermore, mentoring and empowerment may improve employee service performance. Complete resolution leads to repeat patronage. The study found significant relationships between demographic characteristics with service failures and service recovery efforts. Lastly, there were significant relationships between the critical service failures and service recovery efforts and types of fast food restaurants.     

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS OF CONSUMPTION-INVESTMENT PROBLEMS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH REGIME SWITCHING

We consider a consumption and investment problem where the market presents different regimes. An investor taking decisions continuously in time selects a consumption–investment policy to maximize his expected total discounted utility of consumption. The market coefficients and the investor's utility of consumption are dependent on the regime of the financial market, which is modeled by an observable finite-state continuous-time Markov chain. We obtain explicit optimal consumption and investment policies for specific HARA utility functions. We show that the optimal policy depends on the regime. We also make an economic analysis of the solutions, and show that for every investor the optimal proportion to allocate in the risky asset is greater in a "bull market" than in a "bear market." This behavior is not affected by the investor's risk preferences. On the other hand, the optimal consumption to wealth ratio depends not only on the regime, but also on the investor's risk tolerance: high risk-averse investors will consume relatively more in a "bull market" than in a "bear market," and the opposite is true for low risk-averse investors.     

钢铁厂行车上电子秤传感器安装的改进及其设计与计算

文章针对钢铁厂和铸造厂吊运钢（铁）水的起重机（行车）上的电子秤存在容易失灵的问题进行了实地观察分析,并提出了切实有效的改进措施。     

基于反馈信号检测的汽车疑难故障诊断

通过对现代汽车反馈传感器信号检测的结果分析，总结目前机动车疑难故障诊断的新的方法和思路，对汽车维修中常见的无明显故障码的现象产生原因进行研究，提出了相应的解决办法和应对措施．对汽车反馈传感器波形检测的实车应用进行了有意义的探讨和论证．     

天然气输送离心式压缩机组故障诊断方法研究

文章介绍了天然气输送离心式压缩机组的常见故障,分析了故障原因及特征,进而对其故障诊断技术现状进行了总结和比较,在此基础上针对输气动力设备故障的复杂性提出了应用数据挖掘技术对离心式压缩机组进行故障诊断的初步设想。     

The influence of self-construal and co-consumption others on consumer complaining behavior

Consumers show great individual variability in complaining behavior even after experiencing similar service failures. The present study examined the effect of self-construal and co-consumption others on consumer complaining behavior following a service failure. Based on an experimental study with a sample of 202 in a restaurant context, MANCOVA results revealed significant effects of self-construal on voice response and switching behavior. The results also showed a significant interaction effect of self-construal and the presence of co-consumption others on switching behavior. The findings shed light into the intrapersonal and interpersonal dynamics at work when consumers react to service failures. Theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are also discussed.